When Do S&P 500 Tops Occur Most Often?

The S&P 500 tends to be the most expensive at the beginning of the month (due to beginning of the month flows from 401Ks, etc.) and during OPEX expiration week (due to OPEX flows). I like using data to my advantage so the way I think about this is if the market makes a new high for the month during one of the lull periods in Table 1, then I assume that is not a meaningful high (i.e. I assume tops occur where they typically occur absent really strong data to the contrary).

Table 1. 40 Trading Day Tops by Day of Month (Since 1993)

I focus on SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ , but I added SPX because sometimes people like to see it too. The $430 QQQ call wall that was rejected the other day stands out and I think it is revisited next week. On SPY, $490 and $495 seems in play as well too. 0DTE traders love to reach for these big call levels and I think this set up will be no different, but what is less clear is whether they target these levels by the end of next week or by February OPEX. I lean towards next week though time will tell.

Table 2. SPX, SPY, and QQQ Open Interest Through February OPEX