Yup, War is Still not Bearish.

When there is a geopolitical conflict, I don’t turn to Reddit or Twitter; I turn to Bloomberg for the boring academic guests no one watches. These experts are often spot on with their views, unlike the fearmongering across many other platforms. History shows that war dips are worth buying and the Iran/Israel conflict is proving to be no different.

Last Thursday I said I was looking to buy VIX futures on a dip Friday, which I did as a hedge for weekend geopolitical risk. I said I would sell these futures immediately when they spike as that would be the beginning of the end of the Iran conflict (or at least things would settle to the point where markets no longer cared). Carrying out the mission on a Saturday when the markets were closed then stating our part was finished was smart by the administration because had those bunker bombs been dropped in the middle of the cash session the VIX would have spiked much higher. I sold my VIX futures the second they opened Sunday, one benefit of trading futures versus options and equities. The VIX model signaled volatility is expensive last week and is currently in neutral.

Option Based Volatility (VIX) Signal Model