Do you still expect Q to reach 510 in Nov opex? The sell off of Q was quite strong, is because Japan interest rate decision? Will that like August sell off?
I never said I expect QQQs to reach 510, I said it’s the best case upside target scenario based on open interest. Open interest levels are simply used to determine support and resistance levels or best/worst case targets. I think the sell of was due to the realization capex will be heavier than expected for major tech cos and a reduced likelihood of the fed easing given hotter inflation and better econ data. I still expect SPY to march toward $600-615. 2nd half of Oct is historically not great and Oct the mth landed exactly where it has historically.
Rereading it I can see why you would think it was a target price. I’ll rewrite that section tonight so it’s more clear. I use OI for support and resistance levels, which can be target levels. I’m not expecting a top until Jan or Feb, assuming SPY reaches 600-615 by then. QQQ 510 by Nov OPEX would be the best case for QQQ (peak gamma level), but that’s not my target. My target is SPY 600-615 by Dec OPEX. Will sharpen it as we get closer.
I thought about sharing that the S&P 500 components with a 5 day RSI below 30 was rising as the market was flat/up, which is a bearish divergence, but given I’m not bearish 15 TDs out I didn’t go there.
Yeah that bearish read yesterday from Wed was off. Yesterday’s was 40%, but some models were bullish vol, but not enough to tip the scale into >50%. The SPY model has been correctly bearish, and the 5 TD model showed neg avg rtns (table below 5 TD model) at the neutral 55% read yesterday.
Do you still expect Q to reach 510 in Nov opex? The sell off of Q was quite strong, is because Japan interest rate decision? Will that like August sell off?
I never said I expect QQQs to reach 510, I said it’s the best case upside target scenario based on open interest. Open interest levels are simply used to determine support and resistance levels or best/worst case targets. I think the sell of was due to the realization capex will be heavier than expected for major tech cos and a reduced likelihood of the fed easing given hotter inflation and better econ data. I still expect SPY to march toward $600-615. 2nd half of Oct is historically not great and Oct the mth landed exactly where it has historically.
Spy to 600-615 in Nov opex?
Rereading it I can see why you would think it was a target price. I’ll rewrite that section tonight so it’s more clear. I use OI for support and resistance levels, which can be target levels. I’m not expecting a top until Jan or Feb, assuming SPY reaches 600-615 by then. QQQ 510 by Nov OPEX would be the best case for QQQ (peak gamma level), but that’s not my target. My target is SPY 600-615 by Dec OPEX. Will sharpen it as we get closer.
Whenever we see consolidation for so many days and not able to breakout then we get a sharp sell off lasting 3-4 days
I thought about sharing that the S&P 500 components with a 5 day RSI below 30 was rising as the market was flat/up, which is a bearish divergence, but given I’m not bearish 15 TDs out I didn’t go there.
I think weakness till next week.
I believe the vix number was 0 two days ago. And the odds on your metric would see one rally. So far I do not believed we have seen the rally
So the VIX struck out twice! Sure didn’t help me here
Yeah that bearish read yesterday from Wed was off. Yesterday’s was 40%, but some models were bullish vol, but not enough to tip the scale into >50%. The SPY model has been correctly bearish, and the 5 TD model showed neg avg rtns (table below 5 TD model) at the neutral 55% read yesterday.
Has the breadth indicator reached 80?
Not quite, back at 60, a decline tomorrow would get it there.